You are cordially invited to attend an outstanding seminar
Uncertainty Sources, Types and Quantification Models for Risk Studies
by
7:00 pm, Thursday October 21, 2010 (preceded by AGT's traditional buffet available
from 6:00 pm) Small Dining Room The Abstract: This
seminar provides an overview of risk analysis and management to examine
knowledge reliability based on ignorance and uncertainty analyses. It summarizes
formalized philosophical and mathematical frameworks for their analyses using
model prediction and validation as an example. Two risk studies are
summarized: the first on hurricane-prone regions and the second on homeland
security. It summarizes foundational bases for assessing the reliability
of knowledge constructed as a collective set of justified true beliefs, and
offers open questions as concluding remarks. The Guest Speaker:
Dr.
Bilal Ayyub is a professor at the University of Maryland and the director of
its Center for Technology & Systems Management. He is engaged in research
activities focused on risk analysis, uncertainty modeling and analysis, systems
modeling, decision analysis, homeland security, various defense and
infrastructure systems, safety systems, and mathematical modeling using
statistics, probability theory, fuzzy sets, and the theory of evidence. He is a
fellow of ASCE, ASME, and SNAME; a recipient of the ASNE 'Jimmie' Hamilton
Award for the best paper in the Naval Engineers Journal during 1985, 1992, 2000
and 2002; the award for the outstanding research oriented paper in the ASCE
Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management in 1987; and the ASCE Edmund
Friedman Young Engineer Award for Professional Achievement, 1989; the North
American Fuzzy Information Processing Society's K. S. Fu Award for
Distinguished Service 1995; the ASCE Walter L. Huber Research Prize, 1997; and
several leadership and distinguished service awards. Dr. Ayyub is the author
and co-author of about 500 publications including several textbooks on
probability & statistics, reliability, risk analysis, uncertainty analysis
and modeling, expert-opinion elicitation, and numerical methods. **************************************************************************************************************************************************************** Please RSVP
by sending email to ahmokad@msn.com before
October 19, 2010. Please use in the email subject: Registration for October
2010 Seminar
**************************************************************************************************************************************************************** Location and Security Measures in force on the NNMC Campus:
If driving, you must enter the Naval Medical Center (NNMC) campus via Center
Drive off of Wisconsin Avenue. When stopped by the guards, indicate that you
are attending the AGT meeting at the Uniformed Services University of the
Health Sciences (USUHS). Be prepared to present a photo ID. NNMC is right
across the street from the NIH metro stop (Medical Center, Red Line). After
clearing the security check, turn right at the next road (Palmer Road) and
continue back to USUHS, which is the last large set of buildings on your left.
At the end of Palmer, turn left to enter the underground parking garage. You
may park in any garage parking spot not marked as "reserved." The
small dinning room is one flight up, and may be reached by taking the outdoor
stairs to the Courtyard, or by entering via the security office at the parking
garage level. Additional Security Note: The National Naval Medical
Center observes security procedures appropriate to the threat environment. At a
minimum, a valid, unexpired picture ID will be required. There may be times
when two picture IDs will be required, as well as random interviews and vehicle
searches. There may be times when your name must be registered with NNMC
Security to get on the base, so register as early as you can for each AGT
meeting. The base police also are on the lookout for driving violations. The
speed limit on NNMC base is 20 miles per hour - and is strictly enforced. Be
sure to come to a full stop and any pedestrian crossing with a stop sign.
Pedestrians always have the right of way. You should always stop for
pedestrians to cross the street, even at an unmarked crossing. Directions: Metro:
Take the Red Line to the Medical Center stop. Once outside, turn around to
cross Rockville Pike and enter the National Naval Medical Center campus. After
showing ID to the guards, turn right to follow Palmer Avenue and walk
approximately 10 minutes to the last large building on the left, which is the
Uniformed Serivces University of the Health Sciences. Proceed left into the
center of the USUHS complex and enter the building on the left to find the
small dining room (beyond the main dining room). Automobile
from downtown Washington, DC: Take Wisconsin Avenue north to
Bethesda. Make a right into the National Naval Medical Center, just after Jones
Bridge Road. Turn right (Palmer Rd) and follow to USUHS. Turn left into USUHS
parking garage at the end of Palmer. DO NOT PARK IN
FRONT OF THE UNIVERSITY! Automobile
from I-495 Virginia: Take 495 towards Rockville. At the I-270/I-495
split, stay to the right on I-495. Take the exit for Rt. 355-Wisconsin
Avenue-Bethesda. Turn left at the 3rd traffic signal - This is the entrance to
National Naval Medical Center. Turn right (Palmer Rd) and follow to USUHS. Turn
left into USUHS parking garage at the end of Palmer. DO NOT PARK IN FRONT OF
THE UNIVERSITY! Automobile
from I-495 P.G. County/Baltimore: Take 495 towards Silver Spring.
Exit at Connecticut Avenue-Chevy Chase. At the bottom of the exit, turn left
onto Connecticut Avenue. Go to the second traffic light, which is Jones Bridge
Road, and make a right. Turn right on Wisconsin Avenue, and take the first
right into National Naval Medical Center. Turn (Palmer Rd) and follow to USUHS.
Turn left into USUHS parking garage at the end of Palmer. DO NOT PARK IN FRONT OF THE UNIVERSITY! Automobile
from I-270: Take I-270 south. Stay to the left at the split, observe
HOV restrictions during rush hour. Exit at Rt. 355-Wisconsin Avenue-Bethesda
(left lane exit). Turn left at the 3rd traffic signal (South Wood Road- it is
2nd traffic light after Cedar lane) - This is the entrance to National Naval
Medical Center. Turn right (Palmer Rd) (this is the first right after security
check) and follow to USUHS. Turn left and go down into USUHS parking garage at
the end of Palmer (4th Stop sign). DO NOT PARK IN FRONT
OF THE UNIVERSITY!
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